AFTER years of excess, of mismanagement, of corruption and of helplessness in the face of hooliganism, the humbling of Italian football in recent times has smacked of inevitability. England's Premier League and Spain's Primera Liga have left Serie A in their wake, the country's top 20 clubs have combined debts of close to £2bn and their pulling power in the transfer market has seriously waned, leaving football scribes who wish to seem perspicacious to talk of calcio having hit rock bottom and of season 2009/10 representing a "year zero".
The problem with such an analysis is that a lot of the evidence to hand suggests it is at best alarmist and at worst bunkum. It was, of course, a source of humiliation that no Italian clubs reached the quarterfinals of last season's Champions League, while the departures in the summer of two of the league's most gifted players - Kaka and Zlatan Ibrahimovic - for Spain, were not alleviated by significant arrivals coming to ply their trade on the peninsula from overseas. Silvio Berlusconi has taken the scissors to AC Milan's budget, even Inter have scaled back, Lazio are still on a fiscally chastened footing after nearly going bankrupt in 2002, and Roma's problems are exemplified by the fact that Francesco Totti was forced into taking a pay cut.
Milan supporters, 15,000 of them, responded to Berlusconi's new tack by refusing to renew their season tickets. Around the country, however, season ticket sales were slightly up on 2008, one possible reason being that people rightly anticipated a competitive race for this year's scudetto. Inter may be favourites to win their fifth consecutive title but it's likely to be tougher for them at the top than it is in Spain for the duopoly of Barcelona and Real Madrid, and competition for the Champions League places is at least as healthy as it is shaping up to be in England.
It should also be remembered when talk turns to that figure of £2bn that very few clubs in England are run along sensible business lines, and that in fact Italian clubs are better equipped than their English counterparts when it comes to that other most prized of commodities, homegrown players. Most of Italy's not inconsiderable top talents play in Italy and most clubs have a majority of Italian players.
There is, moreover, far greater cause for Italians to be optimistic than the doommongers allow. All three Italian teams in the Champions League are in a decent position to advance to the last 16. In an incredibly tight Group F, Inter, after three draws, really need a win away against Dynamo Kiev on Tuesday; but Milan sit top of Group C after that remarkable victory at the Bernabeu last week - which takes a degree of pressure off their shoulders when Real visit the San Siro, also on Tuesday - and Fiorentina are looking better value than Liverpool to advance in Group E after a 2-0 victory over Rafa Benitez's side in Florence.
Wesley Sneijder may have grown somewhat stale at Real Madrid, but he has been inspired in an Inter side divested of Ibrahimovic. Jose Mourinho's other big signings, Samuel Eto'o and Diego Milito, have also helped to fill the Swede-shaped hole up front, while homegrown fledglings like Mario Balotelli and Davide Santon have given the side a much-needed injection of youth.
Milan lie only sixth in Serie A, but this was always going to be a transitional year after their manager since 2001, Carlo Ancelotti, went to Chelsea, Paolo Maldini retired and Kaka sauntered off to Real. Of the €65m received from the latter's sale, €50m has gone on servicing the club's debts, and the new manager, Leonardo, has been tasked with regenerating a reduced squad with younger players.
Berlusconi appears to have an absurd degree of faith in Ronaldinho, but there are signs that he is beginning to form a productive partnership with 20-year-old Alexandre Pato up front. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, surplus to requirements at Real, has been something of a damp squib so far, but it's rumoured he'll be on his way to Spurs in the new year in a swap deal for Roman Pavlyuchenko. And of course David Beckham will be back for the Rossoneri in January keen to prove he's still indispensable to Fabio Capello's England ahead of the World Cup.
Juventus, lying third behind Inter and Sampdoria, look capable of wresting back their domestic supremacy for the first time since the Calciopoli scandal, largely thanks to the £45m they spent in the summer on a new-look Brazilian midfield built around the combative Felipe Melo and, in a more advanced role behind the strikers, Diego.
Sampdoria have benefited this season from a svelter, more focused Antonio Cassano in the role of fantasista, Alberto Gilardino is enjoying a rich vein of scoring form at Fiorentina and Palermo, currently fourth, have so far justified at least some of their manager Walter Zenga's braggadocio.
The main reason for optimism among those who'd like to see Italian football again challenge the might of England and Spain, however, is quite simply that Serie A is about to follow the rich-get-richer English model. As of next season the newly-branded Lega Calcio Serie A will sell collective television rights for the division's 20 clubs.
Serie B, which receives around £70m from the top league, will be cut adrift, and an overall projected income from broadcasting of around £789m per season - significantly more than the roughly £600m a year English clubs currently pull in - will be distributed among Serie A clubs as follows: 40% equally, 30% based on final league standings and the remaining 30% on a sliding scale based on attendances. It has been suggested that the bigger clubs might suffer initially from being unable to maximise their own individual rights, but it is estimated that under the new arrangements the likes of Juve and Milan will each rake in about £77m every year.
Meanwhile, top-tier sides on the fringes of Champions League qualification will increase their revenues exponentially, which will drive competition and perhaps even improve the showings of Italian sides in what was until recently called the UEFA Cup.
Granted average attendances are higher in England and Spain than they are in Italy but, all else being equal, if you were an emerging football wunderkind, would you rather live in the rainy north-west of England or somewhere, anywhere, in Italy? Five years ago, il bel paese boasted two of the top five clubs in Deloitte's Football Money League. This year, the top five all came from England, Spain and Germany. But the humbling of Italian football won't last forever.
This article appeared in The Herald